As promised in my last post, I am going to examine a bit more closely some of the details that differentiate Sandy and Neil's big years. As followers of full ABA area big years know, probably the defining part of Sandy's big year in 1998 was the four weeks he spent at Attu during May and June. In his book, he says he specifically chose 1998 because it was an el nino year, and the ability to visit Attu easily was coming to an end. Of the 20+ years that birders went to Attu prior to 2000, 1998 was unquestionably the best year ever for both the diversity and sheer numbers of rare birds.
I have said in the past that I wondered if the importance of being able to bird at Attu during a big year is overvalued. In particular, after Sandy pushed the big year record to 748, many people began to assume that it was an unbeatable number because after 2000 visiting Attu was very difficult to do--both logistically and financially. Neil potentially breaking the record plus Jay Lehman birding at Attu in May for a week begins to provide more perspective on the significance of Attu for big year birders.
In studying big years, and particularly seeing first Bob Ake and John Vanderpoel creep closer to Sandy's record, I began to outline the "optimal" full ABA area big year schedule that did not include Attu. One key was the need to spend as much as 8 weeks in Alaska hitting all the prime spots--Gambell, Nome, Barrow, the Pribs, Adak and the southwest mainland (Homer and/or Seward). Interestingly, that is what Neil ended up doing in 2013.
But even though Neil made 7 trips to Alaska and spent about 6 weeks of his big year there, when you examine his bird list you find that he only saw a total of 19 code #3-5 birds plus 2 provisionals--common redstart and Eurasian sparrowhawk. In comparison, applying today's ABA code assignments, in 1998 Sandy saw 34 code #3-5's on Attu, and another 8 in the state of Alaska for a total of 42. I do not yet have Jay's final bird list info for 2013, so I can not yet share how he did in Alaska relative to Sandy and Neil. I do know that he had a good trip to Attu, but spent far less time than Sandy did in 1998.
Since Neil saw less than half the number of code #3-5 birds in Alaska that Sandy saw, the obvious question is how did Neil put himself in a position to be the new record holder? First off, Sandy saw a total of 96 code #3-5 birds in 1998 as compared to Neil's total of 79 code #3-5's. But in Canada and the lower 48 states Neil did some catching up by seeing 60 total code #3-5's as compared to Sandy finding 54 code #3-5 birds. But there is still an overall gap of 17 code #3-5 birds.
The differential is that in 1998, again applying current ABA code assignments, there were only 657 code #1 and #2 birds on the ABA list, and Sandy missed 5 of the code #2's (mottled petrel, great gray owl, common ringed plover, gray vireo and McKay's bunting). In 2013 the number of code #1 and #2 birds had climbed to 669, and Neil missed seeing only 1 code #2 (common ringed plover). Doing the math you get: Sandy 748 - 96 = 652; Neil 747 - 79 = 668. 668 - 652 = 16. So you have a difference of 16 code #1 and #2 birds that were seen by Neil, but not by Sandy. This is how Neil got within 1 bird of tying Sandy, and if 2 of his 3 provisional birds are accepted, he will then be at 749 and the new record holder.
Returning to how critical a role Attu played in 1998, looking more closely at the break out of code #3, #4 and #5 birds sheds some light on this question. In particular, Sandy saw 34 rarities on Attu of which 27 were categorized as Asian vagrants. The break out was as follows: 22 code #3; 10 code #4; and 2 code #5. For the rest of Alaska Sandy saw 7 code #3's and 1 code #4. Neil's Alaska numbers break out as: 13 code #3's and 6 code #4's. Each man's year total break down of rarities is: Sandy (96)--68 code #3's; 22 code #4's and 6 code #5's; Neil (79)--54 code #3's; 22 code #4's and 3 code #5's. All of Neil's provisional birds would be code #5 if they are accepted.
So sifting through all this leads me to the conclusion that there is no doubt that being on Attu in 1998 was a huge part of why Sandy was able to push his own record from 722 to 748. And even though there were 20 more code #1 and #2 birds added between 1987 and 1998, I can see why Sandy feels like 1998 was a better big year for him than 1987 had been. But being able to spend enough time in other prime birding spots in Alaska can make up some of the difference for not visiting Attu. And finally, because of the addition of more code #1 and #2 birds to the ABA list since 1998, Neil now has the potential to move into the #1 slot.
The photo above of horned puffins was taken by my friend Laura Keene when we were on the Pribs last fall. My next post will do some more year end wrap-up. Stay tuned!
Friday, January 3, 2014
Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Another Big Year to Remember
As yesterday wound down, I knew that 2013 would go down as another big year for the ages. Both 1998 and 2010 were years where 3 big year birders each passed the lofty 700 level, but 2013 had 2 birders, Neil Hayward and Jay Lehman, who now sit in 2nd and 4th place in the full ABA area big year rankings. Also, Jay is the first birder during a big year to both break 700+ birds for the year, and to pass 800 ABA area life birds by adding over 20 lifers during his big year effort.
But to back up a bit, just as John Vanderpoel did at the end of December in 2011, Neil and Jay also went out of Hatteras, NC last Saturday on Brian Patteson's small boat appropriately named Skua. Good fortune shined down on them as a great skua gave them plenty of fine looks about mid morning (photo below was taken by another birding friend, Doug Koch, who I met during John's big year in 2011).
Neil and Jay drove to my house in Chapel Hill later that day to toast their success with some champagne, and share big year stories. Jay was supposed to catch an early morning flight on Sunday to Arkansas to look for Smith's longspurs. He missed his scheduled flight and could not get another one to Arkansas, so went back to Cincinnati first to renew his drivers license. Then he flew to Arkansas on Monday, and yesterday on his birthday he added his last new bird for the year bringing his total to 733 + 2 provisionals (common redstart and Eurasian sparrowhawk).
Neil flew home to Boston, and with no rarities found since Saturday that he still needed, he finished his big year with a grand total of 747 + 3 provisionals (rufous-necked wood-rail, common redstart and Eurasian sparrowhawk). The great skua was number 746, and since both Sandy Komito and John Vanderpoel had counted aplomado falcon in their respective big year totals even though the state of Texas does not have it on the state's accepted list, Neil decided to also add aplomado falcon to his list--a bird he had seen much earlier in the year. Since Sandy's full area ABA big year record stands at 748, Neil could eventually be the new record holder if at least 2 of his provisional birds--all potentially first ABA area records--end up being added to the ABA bird list.
As I have written a few times since my lower 48 big year in 2010, I felt it was just a matter of time before Sandy's now 15 year old record is surpassed. Greg Neise on 12/27 wrote a piece on the ABA blog discussing Neil's big year versus Sandy's. The main point being how do you make an apples to apples comparison of the 2 efforts considering how the "playing field" has changed in 15 years. Many reading this may be scratching their heads, wondering to what exactly Greg and I are referring.
For starters, since 1998, the ABA bird list has grown from 911 species to 981. More importantly from a big year perspective, some more code #1 and #2 birds have been added to the list as a result of splits and introduced exotics now accepted by the ABA. All of these birds are relatively easy to find, and thus would be expected to be on a big year birder's list.
After completing his big year in 1998, Sandy made a point of discussing in his book, "I Came, I Saw, I Counted", that because of the 19 additional code #1 and #2 birds added to the ABA list between 1987 and 1998 (there were actually 20), he viewed his 2 big year efforts as quite close even though he saw 722 species in 1987 as compared to the 748 he recorded in 1998. So the question this raises again is how do you try to "level the playing field" when comparing big years?
Dan Sanders, who did his big year in 2005 (715), and I have often discussed this issue. As I wrote recently, because almost 5 times as many code #3-5 birds have been added since 1998 as code #1 and #2's, simply dividing a big year total by the total birds on the ABA list for that year does not give you a good measure of relative strength of big year efforts.
If you assume that all big year birders with the highest totals will see almost all, if not all, of the code #1 and #2 birds during their year, then what seems to give a better measure of relative strength is to divide the number of code #3-5 species seen during a big year by a big year birder's overall total. I have done some analysis on this concept, and come up with the following percentages for 5 of the top 6 big year birders on which I have data to review. The comparison using current code assignments for the ABA bird list is:
1998 Sandy Komito: 96 code #3-5 birds divided by 748 total birds = 12.8%
2008 Lynn Barber: 64 code #3-5 birds divided by 723 total birds = 8.9%
2010 Bob Ake: 68 code #3-5 birds divided by 731 total birds = 9.3%
2011 John Vanderpoel: 80 code #3-5 birds divided by 743 total birds = 10.8 %
2013 Neil Hayward: 79 code #3-5 birds divided by 747 total birds = 10.6%
!!!!! Edit comment (1/5/14)--After originally posting these calculations, I reviewed the code #3-5 birds and found that muscovy duck is now listed as a code 2 because of the addition of the introduced population that is now countable in Florida. I checked this because I knew that Neil had not listed muscovy duck as a code #3. As a result, I have adjusted the other 4 totals and resulting percentages above!!!!!
I have more to say about this topic, but I will wait until my next blog post to further elaborate on this idea as well as look at some of the specifics that differentiate Sandy and Neil's big years. For now, let's honor again the awesome big year efforts of Neil Hayward and Jay Lehman. Also I would be remiss in not mentioning the 2 outstanding photographic big years delivered by Issac Sanchez (600--ABA record) and Dave Pavlik (585). Stay tuned!
But to back up a bit, just as John Vanderpoel did at the end of December in 2011, Neil and Jay also went out of Hatteras, NC last Saturday on Brian Patteson's small boat appropriately named Skua. Good fortune shined down on them as a great skua gave them plenty of fine looks about mid morning (photo below was taken by another birding friend, Doug Koch, who I met during John's big year in 2011).
Neil and Jay drove to my house in Chapel Hill later that day to toast their success with some champagne, and share big year stories. Jay was supposed to catch an early morning flight on Sunday to Arkansas to look for Smith's longspurs. He missed his scheduled flight and could not get another one to Arkansas, so went back to Cincinnati first to renew his drivers license. Then he flew to Arkansas on Monday, and yesterday on his birthday he added his last new bird for the year bringing his total to 733 + 2 provisionals (common redstart and Eurasian sparrowhawk).
Neil flew home to Boston, and with no rarities found since Saturday that he still needed, he finished his big year with a grand total of 747 + 3 provisionals (rufous-necked wood-rail, common redstart and Eurasian sparrowhawk). The great skua was number 746, and since both Sandy Komito and John Vanderpoel had counted aplomado falcon in their respective big year totals even though the state of Texas does not have it on the state's accepted list, Neil decided to also add aplomado falcon to his list--a bird he had seen much earlier in the year. Since Sandy's full area ABA big year record stands at 748, Neil could eventually be the new record holder if at least 2 of his provisional birds--all potentially first ABA area records--end up being added to the ABA bird list.
As I have written a few times since my lower 48 big year in 2010, I felt it was just a matter of time before Sandy's now 15 year old record is surpassed. Greg Neise on 12/27 wrote a piece on the ABA blog discussing Neil's big year versus Sandy's. The main point being how do you make an apples to apples comparison of the 2 efforts considering how the "playing field" has changed in 15 years. Many reading this may be scratching their heads, wondering to what exactly Greg and I are referring.
For starters, since 1998, the ABA bird list has grown from 911 species to 981. More importantly from a big year perspective, some more code #1 and #2 birds have been added to the list as a result of splits and introduced exotics now accepted by the ABA. All of these birds are relatively easy to find, and thus would be expected to be on a big year birder's list.
After completing his big year in 1998, Sandy made a point of discussing in his book, "I Came, I Saw, I Counted", that because of the 19 additional code #1 and #2 birds added to the ABA list between 1987 and 1998 (there were actually 20), he viewed his 2 big year efforts as quite close even though he saw 722 species in 1987 as compared to the 748 he recorded in 1998. So the question this raises again is how do you try to "level the playing field" when comparing big years?
Dan Sanders, who did his big year in 2005 (715), and I have often discussed this issue. As I wrote recently, because almost 5 times as many code #3-5 birds have been added since 1998 as code #1 and #2's, simply dividing a big year total by the total birds on the ABA list for that year does not give you a good measure of relative strength of big year efforts.
If you assume that all big year birders with the highest totals will see almost all, if not all, of the code #1 and #2 birds during their year, then what seems to give a better measure of relative strength is to divide the number of code #3-5 species seen during a big year by a big year birder's overall total. I have done some analysis on this concept, and come up with the following percentages for 5 of the top 6 big year birders on which I have data to review. The comparison using current code assignments for the ABA bird list is:
1998 Sandy Komito: 96 code #3-5 birds divided by 748 total birds = 12.8%
2008 Lynn Barber: 64 code #3-5 birds divided by 723 total birds = 8.9%
2010 Bob Ake: 68 code #3-5 birds divided by 731 total birds = 9.3%
2011 John Vanderpoel: 80 code #3-5 birds divided by 743 total birds = 10.8 %
2013 Neil Hayward: 79 code #3-5 birds divided by 747 total birds = 10.6%
!!!!! Edit comment (1/5/14)--After originally posting these calculations, I reviewed the code #3-5 birds and found that muscovy duck is now listed as a code 2 because of the addition of the introduced population that is now countable in Florida. I checked this because I knew that Neil had not listed muscovy duck as a code #3. As a result, I have adjusted the other 4 totals and resulting percentages above!!!!!
I have more to say about this topic, but I will wait until my next blog post to further elaborate on this idea as well as look at some of the specifics that differentiate Sandy and Neil's big years. For now, let's honor again the awesome big year efforts of Neil Hayward and Jay Lehman. Also I would be remiss in not mentioning the 2 outstanding photographic big years delivered by Issac Sanchez (600--ABA record) and Dave Pavlik (585). Stay tuned!
Tuesday, December 24, 2013
And Then There Was Only One Week Left
It is Christmas eve afternoon and all thru the house.....In 2010 during my lower 48 big year I was home today getting ready to spend Christmas day with my family. This year I am doing the same, and since I was in town this past Sunday, I also was able to join my friends Pam and Perry who walk our property as part of their annual CBC day. It was unusually warm--record setting warm--here in Chapel Hill. We really had a pretty slow day bird wise until the very end of the 3 hour tour thru the 230 acres we live on. We picked up a small mixed feeding flock, and Perry found a barred owl roosting in a pine tree. I did not have my camera with me, so instead I have posted a photo of a barred owl that I took in Florida back in 2010 (click on photo to enlarge).
With just one week to go in 2013, a short update on the big year birders seemed appropriate. Ron Furnish has not posted anything since last week's update, but I did see that he entered on the ABA listing central site his year total of 687. Neil Hayward did make it to Homer, AK where on the 18th he saw a rustic bunting. He has been home since waiting for another rarity to be found that he might be able to chase. He briefly thought one had been seen in British Columbia--a possible Eurasian Hobby--but it was decided that it was the prairie race of merlin. His year total is at 745 + 3 provisionals, and he also has seen an aplomado falcon that he might still add to his list.
The big news for this post is the outstanding job turned in so far in December by Jay Lehman. As I have pointed out in earlier posts, Jay's big year has developed unlike any of the other highly successful big year birder's efforts. All those in the 700+ group have started very fast, and generally have seen at least 600 different species by June 1. Jay started more slowly, and by June 1 his year total was only at 522. As a result, I suggested in an earlier post that he was the tortoise as compared to Neil's hare.
Jay has proven that an accomplished birder with his kind of experience and knowledge can definitely overcome a slow start. Through his persistence and diligence Jay is now at 730 + 2 provisionals. In December so far he has added 25 new birds to his list as he has sought out, mostly in Arizona, many code #1 and #2 birds that were not yet on his list. In comparison in December Sandy Komito (748) saw only 3 new birds; John Vanderpoel found only 10 more; Bob Ake saw 8 new birds; Lynn Barber also added 8 new species; and Neil so far has seen 8 new birds. Kudos to Jay for delivering such a strong effort this month.
After this date in their respective big years, Sandy saw 1 new bird; John 3; Bob 1; and Lynn 1. Who knows what the next 7 days might bring in the way of rarities, but if the weather cooperates, both Neil and Jay are planning to go out of Hatteras, NC with Brian Patteson on Saturday the 28th in hopes of seeing a great skua. For Neil, depending on what happens with his provisional birds, a great skua would give him the potential to set a new full ABA area big year record. For Jay, it definitely would tie him for 4th place on the full ABA area big year list and his provisionals give him the potential to be alone in the 4th spot. Stay tuned!
With just one week to go in 2013, a short update on the big year birders seemed appropriate. Ron Furnish has not posted anything since last week's update, but I did see that he entered on the ABA listing central site his year total of 687. Neil Hayward did make it to Homer, AK where on the 18th he saw a rustic bunting. He has been home since waiting for another rarity to be found that he might be able to chase. He briefly thought one had been seen in British Columbia--a possible Eurasian Hobby--but it was decided that it was the prairie race of merlin. His year total is at 745 + 3 provisionals, and he also has seen an aplomado falcon that he might still add to his list.
The big news for this post is the outstanding job turned in so far in December by Jay Lehman. As I have pointed out in earlier posts, Jay's big year has developed unlike any of the other highly successful big year birder's efforts. All those in the 700+ group have started very fast, and generally have seen at least 600 different species by June 1. Jay started more slowly, and by June 1 his year total was only at 522. As a result, I suggested in an earlier post that he was the tortoise as compared to Neil's hare.
Jay has proven that an accomplished birder with his kind of experience and knowledge can definitely overcome a slow start. Through his persistence and diligence Jay is now at 730 + 2 provisionals. In December so far he has added 25 new birds to his list as he has sought out, mostly in Arizona, many code #1 and #2 birds that were not yet on his list. In comparison in December Sandy Komito (748) saw only 3 new birds; John Vanderpoel found only 10 more; Bob Ake saw 8 new birds; Lynn Barber also added 8 new species; and Neil so far has seen 8 new birds. Kudos to Jay for delivering such a strong effort this month.
After this date in their respective big years, Sandy saw 1 new bird; John 3; Bob 1; and Lynn 1. Who knows what the next 7 days might bring in the way of rarities, but if the weather cooperates, both Neil and Jay are planning to go out of Hatteras, NC with Brian Patteson on Saturday the 28th in hopes of seeing a great skua. For Neil, depending on what happens with his provisional birds, a great skua would give him the potential to set a new full ABA area big year record. For Jay, it definitely would tie him for 4th place on the full ABA area big year list and his provisionals give him the potential to be alone in the 4th spot. Stay tuned!
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
52 Weeks in the Books with Just 2 More to Go
There are only 2 weeks left in 2013 for big year birders to find a few more new species for their lists. In 2010 by this date I did not yet know that I had just seen my last new birds for the year. I had gone to North Dakota to see both common and hoary redpolls which on the day that I saw them I thought were my 700th and 701st birds for my lower 48 big year. Little did I know that because I had not created a bird list on my blog until February, I had left 3 birds off the list when I did my initial 200+ bird entry. Followers of my blog pointed out an entry error I had made on scissor-tailed flycatcher, and when I went to carefully review my list I found a few entry errors including that I had left northern harrier, blue-headed vireo and hermit thrush off my list back when I first started it on the blog.
Imagine my surprise then to discover that the 2 redpolls were actually my 703rd and 704th birds for the year (click on any photo to enlarge). Even though I went up to Massachusetts to join a CBC in hopes of seeing a thick-billed murre on the 19th of December, I did not see one, and so my final count for 2010 was 704.
So where are our big year birders with just 14 days left to bird? Ron Furnish did another post to talk about his recent trip to Texas to see whooping cranes. This was his 687th new bird for the year, but in his trip report he said he does not expect to do any significant birding before 12/31, and that the cranes might be his last new bird for 2013.
Jay Lehman has been birding so hard that he is not close to caught up on his blog. He had a very successful trip to Anchorage and Nome, and also out to Adak with Neil Hayward, John Puschock and Bill Sain. I believe he is currently in Arizona picking up more birds as well. Jay started his year a bit slowly and then missed 2-3 weeks in August because of a flooding problem at his home in Cincinnati, Ohio. As a result, he still is searching for some code #1 and #2 birds that he did not have time to find earlier in the year. His count is now up to 721 + 3 provisionals last I heard.
Neil as I write is amazingly flying back to Alaska to look for a rustic bunting that has been coming to a feeder in Homer for the past week. I believe that this is his 7th trip since May to Alaska. He had been in Florida where he saw a La Sagra's flycatcher, but missed finding what appears to be a returning white-cheeked pintail at Pelican Island NWR. With the little bunting he saw in northern California, and the La Sagra's he is now at 744 + 3 provisionals. He has still not added the aplomado falcon he saw to his list which would bring his confirmed total to 745. Sandy Komito's record of 748 set back in 1998 is definitely in play. Stay tuned!
Imagine my surprise then to discover that the 2 redpolls were actually my 703rd and 704th birds for the year (click on any photo to enlarge). Even though I went up to Massachusetts to join a CBC in hopes of seeing a thick-billed murre on the 19th of December, I did not see one, and so my final count for 2010 was 704.
So where are our big year birders with just 14 days left to bird? Ron Furnish did another post to talk about his recent trip to Texas to see whooping cranes. This was his 687th new bird for the year, but in his trip report he said he does not expect to do any significant birding before 12/31, and that the cranes might be his last new bird for 2013.
Jay Lehman has been birding so hard that he is not close to caught up on his blog. He had a very successful trip to Anchorage and Nome, and also out to Adak with Neil Hayward, John Puschock and Bill Sain. I believe he is currently in Arizona picking up more birds as well. Jay started his year a bit slowly and then missed 2-3 weeks in August because of a flooding problem at his home in Cincinnati, Ohio. As a result, he still is searching for some code #1 and #2 birds that he did not have time to find earlier in the year. His count is now up to 721 + 3 provisionals last I heard.
Neil as I write is amazingly flying back to Alaska to look for a rustic bunting that has been coming to a feeder in Homer for the past week. I believe that this is his 7th trip since May to Alaska. He had been in Florida where he saw a La Sagra's flycatcher, but missed finding what appears to be a returning white-cheeked pintail at Pelican Island NWR. With the little bunting he saw in northern California, and the La Sagra's he is now at 744 + 3 provisionals. He has still not added the aplomado falcon he saw to his list which would bring his confirmed total to 745. Sandy Komito's record of 748 set back in 1998 is definitely in play. Stay tuned!
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Just 4 Weeks Left for 2013 Big Year Birders
In 2010 during my lower 48 big year, I was home on this date looking out my kitchen window at my snow covered bird feeding station. Henry the heron looked cold with snow on his back. Since I had seen all but 2 of the code #1 and #2 birds that could be expected to be found in the lower 48 states, I was in a holding pattern waiting for a new vagrant to show up somewhere. As it turned out, I headed to California on the 8th to look again for the brown shrike that was relocated above Arcata.
So what has happened with the big year birders in the past week? Ron still has not posted any new trip reports and his total is at 686. Jay had a very successful trip to Newfoundland and Nova Scotia followed by a whirlwind day in Arizona that has brought his year total to 708 + 2 provisionals. He is in Anchorage today in an effort to find the dusky thrush that has returned to the city for the 3rd winter in a row. Tomorrow he and Neil will be flying out to Adak with John Puschock to spend 3 days searching for rarities.
After finding the dusky thrush last Friday, and seeing McKay's buntings on Saturday in Nome, Neil decided to make a quick trip to TX where he saw yesterday American flamingo and whooping crane. He is flying back to Anchorage today to be in position to go to Adak. His year total is 740 + 2 provisionals. He has now seen all but 2 code #2 birds. During my lower 48 big year I had the good fortune to see in August 3 sub-adult flamingos in the Everglades.
Again, some data points for comparison. With 4 weeks left, in 1998 Sandy Komito saw just 3 more new species of which two were code #4. Lynn Barber in 2008 found 8 more new birds with 7 being code #3 or higher. In 2010 Bob Ake also saw 8 more new species of which 7 were code #3-5. Finally, John Vanderpoel in 2011 also saw only 8 more new birds of which 6 were code #3 or higher.
To wrap up this post, I also will share some new statistical analysis that I have done on big years. Dan Sanders (full ABA area big year in 2005), and I have been talking for some time now about other possible ways to measure big year success than just a year end total. The reason for the discussion is because the ABA keeps adding more birds to its list. Specifically, in 1979 when James Vardaman fell 1 bird short of seeing 700 birds, the ABA list of accepted birds totaled 826. In 1998 the ABA list was up to 911 species. By 2008 it had reached 957, and today it is at 981. Of the total new birds added since 1979, 33 have been code #1 or #2, and 122 have been code #3 or higher.
As I have written in the past, when comparing Sandy Komito's 2 big year totals (1987--725; 1998--748), you would say on first blush that 1998 was far superior. But when you realize that 21 more code #1 and #2 birds were added to the ABA list between 1987 and 1998, an apples to apples comparison shows the 2 years were much closer. Sandy in his book about his 1998 big year, "I Came, I Saw, I Counted", talks about this, but concluded he felt overall that 1998 was a "better" effort.
I have also commented in several posts that one reason I think Sandy's record will be broken is because 12 more code #1 and #2 species have been added to the ABA list since 1998. This is one reason Lynn Barber, Bob Ake, John Vanderpoel and probably Neil Hayward have been able to reach ever higher year end totals for the full ABA area since 2008.
So, another possible way to measure big year success might be to calculate a birder's percentage success rate by dividing birds seen against the ABA list total for that year. Having done this, I have concluded this is not really a good measure because 4 times as many code #3 or higher birds have been added since 1979 as code #1 and #2 species. The numbers are as follows: Vardaman 699 in 1979--84.6%; Benton Basham 711 in 1983--84.6%; Komito 722 in 1987--84.1%; Rydell 714 in 1992--81.5%; Komito 748 in 1998--82.1%; Sanders 715 in 2005--76.7%; Barber 723 in 2008--75.5%; Ake 731 in 2010--75.4%; and Vanderpoel 743 + 1 provisional in 2011--76.7%.
One other point involves the linear nature of a big year. Specifically, it is interesting to see that there is a strong correlation between how early a big year birder hits 700, and the overall big year total achieved. Again the numbers since 1998 for full ABA area big year birders who passed 700 birds: Komito (748) reached 700 species on 7/12; Vanderpoel (743 + 1) saw his 700th on 8/27; Hayward (740 and counting) hit 700 birds on 8/19; Ake (731) got to 700 on 9/6; Barber (723) saw her 700th bird on 10/24; Sanders (715) did it on 11/9; Miller (715) reached 700 sometime in late September; Levantin (711) hit 700 in early October; Lehman (708 and counting) saw #700 on 11/18; and Spahr (704) hit 700 on 12/11.
The final 4 weeks of birding in 2013 could be very exciting. Stay tuned!
So what has happened with the big year birders in the past week? Ron still has not posted any new trip reports and his total is at 686. Jay had a very successful trip to Newfoundland and Nova Scotia followed by a whirlwind day in Arizona that has brought his year total to 708 + 2 provisionals. He is in Anchorage today in an effort to find the dusky thrush that has returned to the city for the 3rd winter in a row. Tomorrow he and Neil will be flying out to Adak with John Puschock to spend 3 days searching for rarities.
After finding the dusky thrush last Friday, and seeing McKay's buntings on Saturday in Nome, Neil decided to make a quick trip to TX where he saw yesterday American flamingo and whooping crane. He is flying back to Anchorage today to be in position to go to Adak. His year total is 740 + 2 provisionals. He has now seen all but 2 code #2 birds. During my lower 48 big year I had the good fortune to see in August 3 sub-adult flamingos in the Everglades.
Again, some data points for comparison. With 4 weeks left, in 1998 Sandy Komito saw just 3 more new species of which two were code #4. Lynn Barber in 2008 found 8 more new birds with 7 being code #3 or higher. In 2010 Bob Ake also saw 8 more new species of which 7 were code #3-5. Finally, John Vanderpoel in 2011 also saw only 8 more new birds of which 6 were code #3 or higher.
To wrap up this post, I also will share some new statistical analysis that I have done on big years. Dan Sanders (full ABA area big year in 2005), and I have been talking for some time now about other possible ways to measure big year success than just a year end total. The reason for the discussion is because the ABA keeps adding more birds to its list. Specifically, in 1979 when James Vardaman fell 1 bird short of seeing 700 birds, the ABA list of accepted birds totaled 826. In 1998 the ABA list was up to 911 species. By 2008 it had reached 957, and today it is at 981. Of the total new birds added since 1979, 33 have been code #1 or #2, and 122 have been code #3 or higher.
As I have written in the past, when comparing Sandy Komito's 2 big year totals (1987--725; 1998--748), you would say on first blush that 1998 was far superior. But when you realize that 21 more code #1 and #2 birds were added to the ABA list between 1987 and 1998, an apples to apples comparison shows the 2 years were much closer. Sandy in his book about his 1998 big year, "I Came, I Saw, I Counted", talks about this, but concluded he felt overall that 1998 was a "better" effort.
I have also commented in several posts that one reason I think Sandy's record will be broken is because 12 more code #1 and #2 species have been added to the ABA list since 1998. This is one reason Lynn Barber, Bob Ake, John Vanderpoel and probably Neil Hayward have been able to reach ever higher year end totals for the full ABA area since 2008.
So, another possible way to measure big year success might be to calculate a birder's percentage success rate by dividing birds seen against the ABA list total for that year. Having done this, I have concluded this is not really a good measure because 4 times as many code #3 or higher birds have been added since 1979 as code #1 and #2 species. The numbers are as follows: Vardaman 699 in 1979--84.6%; Benton Basham 711 in 1983--84.6%; Komito 722 in 1987--84.1%; Rydell 714 in 1992--81.5%; Komito 748 in 1998--82.1%; Sanders 715 in 2005--76.7%; Barber 723 in 2008--75.5%; Ake 731 in 2010--75.4%; and Vanderpoel 743 + 1 provisional in 2011--76.7%.
One other point involves the linear nature of a big year. Specifically, it is interesting to see that there is a strong correlation between how early a big year birder hits 700, and the overall big year total achieved. Again the numbers since 1998 for full ABA area big year birders who passed 700 birds: Komito (748) reached 700 species on 7/12; Vanderpoel (743 + 1) saw his 700th on 8/27; Hayward (740 and counting) hit 700 birds on 8/19; Ake (731) got to 700 on 9/6; Barber (723) saw her 700th bird on 10/24; Sanders (715) did it on 11/9; Miller (715) reached 700 sometime in late September; Levantin (711) hit 700 in early October; Lehman (708 and counting) saw #700 on 11/18; and Spahr (704) hit 700 on 12/11.
The final 4 weeks of birding in 2013 could be very exciting. Stay tuned!
Monday, November 25, 2013
Back from the Valley
I got up early on Friday morning to drive out to Salineno. I was there by 7:15 and kept a steady eye on the Rio Grande in hopes of seeing red-billed pigeons or muscovy ducks. The 2 year drought was very obvious as the river level was down 3-4 feet from the levels I have seen over my many years of visiting Salineno. There were far fewer birds around as well with no ducks on the river, and only one double-crested and one pelagic cormorant flew by me during 2 hours of watching. Needless to say, I did not see any of the sought after pigeons or ducks.
My consolation prize was to spend a few hours at the recently reopened feeding station just above the river crossing. The state and the Valley Land Trust have been "working" for several months on an agreement to reopen the feeding station which for so many years was a destination for birders in the winter. The primary draw here is seeing Audubon's orioles, but many other valley species also visit the feeders. Between the drought and not feeding for many months the numbers of birds were way down. A eastern screech owl was snoozing in its box though (click on any photo to enlarge).
Over about 3 hours of watching we saw 27 bird species highlighted by the green jays, the greater kiskadees, and a pair of hooded orioles. We had a crested caracara fly over, and a gray hawk. 4 other birders from northern Virginia stopped in for a second time on their birding trip in hopes of picking up Audubon's oriole, but all of us were disappointed to not have any come to the feeders.
The weather was predicted to get ugly beginning in the afternoon, so about 1 PM I started the 70 mile drive back to McAllen. Sure enough the rain began on my way there. By 5 PM major thunderstorms were pounding the area, and the temperature had dropped from the mid 80's into the high 40's. As a result, I decided to try a place that Neil Hayward had told me about called House, Wine and Bistro. I discovered the kind of restaurant that I had not yet found in the Valley which is dominated by steak houses and all kinds of Mexican food.
I have visited the lower Rio Grande Valley since the late 70's, and I have personally witnessed the vast changes that have occurred with the population growth in the area. But this was the first restaurant that showed me that modern fine dining had arrived in the Valley. I enjoyed talking with my wait person who said the place was doing so well that the chef/owner planned to open a second restaurant. I loved the lime shrimp dish, enjoyed a porchetta sandwich, and a dessert called a choco-mole.
I was so pleased with my experience that while seated at my table I called Neil to thank him for the recommendation. He was having coffee with Gerri back home in Cambridge which brings me close to the second half of this post--an update on the 2013 big year efforts. But first I will wrap up the rest of my trip.
I went to Santa Ana NWR Saturday morning where under overcast skies there was not much bird activity. At the feeder station by the headquarters I met Isaac Sanchez who is a long time friend of Jay Lehman. He had come down to Texas as part of his photographic big year to see the amazon kingfisher (you can find a link to his blog on the Narba website). We chatted some about Jay's big year. When it began to rain again, I headed back to my motel. I flew home yesterday to even colder temps in Chapel Hill.
As Thanksgiving week is now upon us, the 2013 big year birders have just over 5 weeks left in their adventures. Ron Furnish has not posted any more trip reports, and his year total is at 686. Jay Lehman just posted on his blog yesterday about finding a little gull which was his 700th bird for the year. He has 2 provisionals as well, and plans to continue birding to raise his year end total.
Neil is still not totally caught up on his blog posts, but if you go to his website and check his list you will see that his total is now up to 736 with 2 provisionals. The one sure bird left for him to see is the whooping crane. He also plans to make a trip to Alaska to see McKay's bunting, and a dusky thrush was reported yesterday in Anchorage. If he were also to go to Adak, he might pick up some rarities there. He is still hoping to see a great skua before the year is up. He also has seen aplomado falcon, but has so far not added it to his list. He now has seen all the code #1 birds in the ABA area, and all but 4 of the code #2 birds. He is now ahead of John Vanderpoel's pace in 2011 which means he has a shot at setting a new full ABA area big year record.
For comparison purposes, in 2008 Lynn Barber (723 total) after this date saw 9 more new species of which 6 were code #3 or higher. Of those birds, Neil has already seen 8. Bob Ake (731 total) in 2010 saw 11 more species of which 9 were code #3 or higher, and Neil has seen 6 of those 11. In 2011 John Vanderpoel (743 + 1 provisional total) saw 10 more new birds of which 9 were code #3 or higher. Neil has already seen 4 of John's last 10. Finally, in 1998 Sandy Komito (745 plus 3 provisionals total) only saw 5 more new species from this date forward of which 4 were code #3 or higher. Neil has already seen 2 of those 5. Stay tuned!
My consolation prize was to spend a few hours at the recently reopened feeding station just above the river crossing. The state and the Valley Land Trust have been "working" for several months on an agreement to reopen the feeding station which for so many years was a destination for birders in the winter. The primary draw here is seeing Audubon's orioles, but many other valley species also visit the feeders. Between the drought and not feeding for many months the numbers of birds were way down. A eastern screech owl was snoozing in its box though (click on any photo to enlarge).
Over about 3 hours of watching we saw 27 bird species highlighted by the green jays, the greater kiskadees, and a pair of hooded orioles. We had a crested caracara fly over, and a gray hawk. 4 other birders from northern Virginia stopped in for a second time on their birding trip in hopes of picking up Audubon's oriole, but all of us were disappointed to not have any come to the feeders.
I have visited the lower Rio Grande Valley since the late 70's, and I have personally witnessed the vast changes that have occurred with the population growth in the area. But this was the first restaurant that showed me that modern fine dining had arrived in the Valley. I enjoyed talking with my wait person who said the place was doing so well that the chef/owner planned to open a second restaurant. I loved the lime shrimp dish, enjoyed a porchetta sandwich, and a dessert called a choco-mole.
I was so pleased with my experience that while seated at my table I called Neil to thank him for the recommendation. He was having coffee with Gerri back home in Cambridge which brings me close to the second half of this post--an update on the 2013 big year efforts. But first I will wrap up the rest of my trip.
I went to Santa Ana NWR Saturday morning where under overcast skies there was not much bird activity. At the feeder station by the headquarters I met Isaac Sanchez who is a long time friend of Jay Lehman. He had come down to Texas as part of his photographic big year to see the amazon kingfisher (you can find a link to his blog on the Narba website). We chatted some about Jay's big year. When it began to rain again, I headed back to my motel. I flew home yesterday to even colder temps in Chapel Hill.
As Thanksgiving week is now upon us, the 2013 big year birders have just over 5 weeks left in their adventures. Ron Furnish has not posted any more trip reports, and his year total is at 686. Jay Lehman just posted on his blog yesterday about finding a little gull which was his 700th bird for the year. He has 2 provisionals as well, and plans to continue birding to raise his year end total.
Neil is still not totally caught up on his blog posts, but if you go to his website and check his list you will see that his total is now up to 736 with 2 provisionals. The one sure bird left for him to see is the whooping crane. He also plans to make a trip to Alaska to see McKay's bunting, and a dusky thrush was reported yesterday in Anchorage. If he were also to go to Adak, he might pick up some rarities there. He is still hoping to see a great skua before the year is up. He also has seen aplomado falcon, but has so far not added it to his list. He now has seen all the code #1 birds in the ABA area, and all but 4 of the code #2 birds. He is now ahead of John Vanderpoel's pace in 2011 which means he has a shot at setting a new full ABA area big year record.
For comparison purposes, in 2008 Lynn Barber (723 total) after this date saw 9 more new species of which 6 were code #3 or higher. Of those birds, Neil has already seen 8. Bob Ake (731 total) in 2010 saw 11 more species of which 9 were code #3 or higher, and Neil has seen 6 of those 11. In 2011 John Vanderpoel (743 + 1 provisional total) saw 10 more new birds of which 9 were code #3 or higher. Neil has already seen 4 of John's last 10. Finally, in 1998 Sandy Komito (745 plus 3 provisionals total) only saw 5 more new species from this date forward of which 4 were code #3 or higher. Neil has already seen 2 of those 5. Stay tuned!
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Amazon Kingfisher!!
In 2010 during my lower 48 big year, the first ever documented amazon kingfisher in the ABA area was found in Laredo, TX in late January. I was in Arizona at the time and stuck with my plan for a few days of birding there, but then decided to try to see the kingfisher on my way home. Because I waited, I missed it by 2 days, but did run into Jay Lehman at the site. This is one of the key lessons of anyone doing a big year--when a rarity shows up, the rule of thumb is to stop whatever you are doing and chase the bird. When another amazon kingfisher was reported about 2 weeks ago near Harlingen, TX, Neil Hayward and Jay Lehman both immediately flew to TX, and were rewarded with a really rare and beautiful bird for their big year lists.
I thought about going to look for it from Sunday to Tuesday of last week, but had a long road trip planned with my brother and sister that was scheduled to begin last Wednesday, so I chose to hope that the bird might stay around. When it was reported again 2 days ago, I decided to fly down to the Rio Grande Valley.
I arrived in McAllen about 2:15 yesterday afternoon, and immediately drove the 45 minutes to the site. When I arrived there were 3 birders there who had patiently been waiting for several hours. Belted, ringed and green kingfishers had sporadically been seen, but no amazon. About 4 PM two birders from Oregon stopped by in hopes of seeing it again. They had had good views of it about 4:30 the day before. By 6 PM it became too dark to see well, so we all headed off hoping for better luck the next day.
I was the first to arrive at the two resacas at 6:30 this morning. Other birders began trickling in soon thereafter. We again saw belted and green kingfishers to keep our hopes up. Several forster's terns came thru about 8 AM. Finally just after 9 AM the female amazon flew up the resaca from the east, and landed right in front of 2 of us (click on the photo to enlarge). Even when enlarged, the bird was far enough way that from my photo you can't fully appreciate its relative size to say the smaller green kingfisher, and particularly its bill, so I also have added the photo below taken by Neil Hayward.
It gave us about 2 minutes of good viewing before it flew over the small side road, and landed on the far edge of the adjacent resaca which was about 100 yards west of us. From there for the next 5-10 minutes it slowly worked its way along the edge feeding and perching which gave all the other birders good looks at it before it disappeared. There were plenty of high fives as everyone climbed back into their cars. I came back by the site about 10:45, and was able to watch it again briefly before it flew off.
I will be birding here in the Rio Grande Valley for the next few days. Maybe something else special will be found. I will probably do another post at the end of my stay. No matter what, I will soon update how the big year efforts are going, but for now I will give a big hooray to Jay Lehman who has reached the 700 level this past week. Once he finds time to update his blog, you will be able to read what he did recently to make it to that lofty height. Neil Hayward has also been quite busy, but he too is a bit behind in his blog, so I will not say anything else for now. Stay tuned!
I thought about going to look for it from Sunday to Tuesday of last week, but had a long road trip planned with my brother and sister that was scheduled to begin last Wednesday, so I chose to hope that the bird might stay around. When it was reported again 2 days ago, I decided to fly down to the Rio Grande Valley.
I arrived in McAllen about 2:15 yesterday afternoon, and immediately drove the 45 minutes to the site. When I arrived there were 3 birders there who had patiently been waiting for several hours. Belted, ringed and green kingfishers had sporadically been seen, but no amazon. About 4 PM two birders from Oregon stopped by in hopes of seeing it again. They had had good views of it about 4:30 the day before. By 6 PM it became too dark to see well, so we all headed off hoping for better luck the next day.
I was the first to arrive at the two resacas at 6:30 this morning. Other birders began trickling in soon thereafter. We again saw belted and green kingfishers to keep our hopes up. Several forster's terns came thru about 8 AM. Finally just after 9 AM the female amazon flew up the resaca from the east, and landed right in front of 2 of us (click on the photo to enlarge). Even when enlarged, the bird was far enough way that from my photo you can't fully appreciate its relative size to say the smaller green kingfisher, and particularly its bill, so I also have added the photo below taken by Neil Hayward.
It gave us about 2 minutes of good viewing before it flew over the small side road, and landed on the far edge of the adjacent resaca which was about 100 yards west of us. From there for the next 5-10 minutes it slowly worked its way along the edge feeding and perching which gave all the other birders good looks at it before it disappeared. There were plenty of high fives as everyone climbed back into their cars. I came back by the site about 10:45, and was able to watch it again briefly before it flew off.
I will be birding here in the Rio Grande Valley for the next few days. Maybe something else special will be found. I will probably do another post at the end of my stay. No matter what, I will soon update how the big year efforts are going, but for now I will give a big hooray to Jay Lehman who has reached the 700 level this past week. Once he finds time to update his blog, you will be able to read what he did recently to make it to that lofty height. Neil Hayward has also been quite busy, but he too is a bit behind in his blog, so I will not say anything else for now. Stay tuned!
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